#EconomicPolicies #InflationRisk #WSJSurvey
A recent survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal has revealed that a majority of economists believe that former President Donald Trump's economic policies are more likely to trigger inflation compared to those of President Joe Biden. Out of 50 economists who participated in the survey, 28 expressed concerns that Trump's proposed plans could lead to a resurgence of high inflation levels, while only 8 economists believed that inflation would be worse under Biden than under Trump.
The economists who identified Trump as a higher inflation risk pointed to his aggressive tariff proposals, such as imposing a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60 to 100% tariff specifically targeting China. They argued that these measures could escalate producer costs, resulting in increased consumer prices. Additionally, Trump's stance on immigration, aiming to restrict immigrant workers, was seen as a factor that could impact the labor market without necessarily reigniting inflation.
Conversely, some economists viewed Biden as a potential inflation threat due to his substantial spending packages. Despite this, a significant portion of the economists estimated that federal deficits would rise more under Trump, particularly due to his intention to make his initial tax cuts permanent. On the other hand, a smaller percentage believed that deficits would increase to a greater extent under Biden, citing the Democratic Party's historical inclination towards higher government spending.
The survey results have been utilized by the Biden campaign to reinforce the President's bid for reelection. A campaign spokesperson emphasized the positive economic indicators under Biden's administration while cautioning against the potential consequences of Trump's policy agenda. In contrast, the Trump campaign refrained from commenting on the survey findings.
The survey, carried out over several days in July, coincided with a recent decline in inflation rates as indicated by the monthly Consumer Price Index. This decrease, the first in over five years, signals a positive trend for the U.S. economy, which has been grappling with post-pandemic inflationary challenges.
As Biden faces uncertainties regarding his future as the Democratic presidential nominee amidst internal and external pressures, he remains resolute in his decision to continue his candidacy. The President has been vocal in highlighting the risks associated with Trump's economic proposals, emphasizing issues like universal tariffs, tax cuts, and Federal Reserve policies. While the survey outcomes align with Biden's arguments, experts caution that the economy's performance is influenced by a multitude of factors beyond any single candidate's control, including decisions made by Congress, government agencies, and external market forces.
Original Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/12/economists-trump-inflation-biden-wsj.html
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